The subject of the China-US-Russia triangle, as well as its impact on the world order, is often the topic of international policy experts. In the year 1971, Kissinger and Nixon made the decision to capitalize on China’s uncertainty of the USSR with the US relations with China. The strategic move resulted in a triangle with the USA playing the leading role and causing a divide between the two communist nations. Now, the conflict with Russia results in the USA being at disadvantage, with delicate implications on the world order. Presently, the Sino-Russian relations are stronger than ever before, which allows the two nations influence the global economy as they like. The logic behind Kissinger’s actions was to attain an advantage for the USA by establishing stronger relations with China and Russia as compared to the interaction that they had with each other. Nonetheless, now, it appears as though China will emerge as the winner, as the gap between Russia and China continue to expand. The existing Sino-Russia relation may be a union for the attainment of convenience more than what the USA is willing to admit. The USA was harsh with Russia and imposed sanctions on her. Russia had no choice but to turn to the East, where China welcomed her warmly. Thus, Russia’s future in energy lied in Asia. Considering the consolidation of the China-Russia relations, it is essential to determine whether Washington should consider the Moscow-Beijing collaboration as a liability to the interests of the USA. To ascertain the risk of the Sino-Russian relations to the USA, it is essential to look into the trilateral US-Russian-Chinese relation and the nature of their instructions in order to come up with an informed analysis.
The Trilateral US-Russian-Chinese Relation
Now, the relation between the USA, China, and Russia is strained by the approach introduced by Henry Kissinger in the era of the Nixon Administration. It stipulates that relation between the USA and either China or Russia has to be stronger than the relation between China and Russia. The interactions between the parties are the opposite of the approach. The relations between the USA and China-Russia are much worse. Thus, the chance of the USA turning China against Russia is much lesser than the possibility of the two countries combining efforts to form an opposition against the USA.
In Russia, as well as China, it is rare to hear assertions of more rapprochement between Russia and China that result in Russia being the minor partner in the China-Russia relationship. Russia should keep such a consideration in mind when she makes the choice between the West and China. Such perspectives emerge from the ideologies rather than from political facts . They are intended to bully Moscow into staying away from the alliance with China, which establishes Russia’s interests against the West. China is in need of an agreement with Russia since its lacks possible conflict shortly.
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In consideration of the threat of Russian being China’s partner and in pushing Russia to select the USA over China, the Western partners have never expressed their intention for Russia or the nature of Russian relations with the West in particular, the USA. The Western partners may be justified to worry that Russia may eventually join China as a junior partner. They have failed to express the position of Russia in the Western world, especially in the security framework and the Western economy. Since the 1990s, the American policy for Russia adhered to specific guidelines, where Russia was misused with the failure of the USSR. The USA has been eager to establish an equal partnership with Russia. Thus, In the course of the Ukraine crisis, the USA had little regard for Russia, and the two countries did not agree on many things. The USA considered Russia as an enemy.
Recently, several analysts have made the use of statistics to prove a claim that has been applied to discourage the Russo-Chinese relations. Thus, the alleged possibility of numerous Chinese nationals entering Siberia as well as the Far East results in a threat to the Russian territory. According to information retrieved from the migrations tendencies of the northern regions of China, the significant number of immigrants does not come to Siberia, but they are more likely to move to the center of China as well as the new the big cities, where they are more liable to have comfortable living conditions. Because of the demographic policies used by China implemented in the past decade, the number of people close to the Russian border has been projected to decrease.
Today, several US analysts and politicians wish they could punish China and Russia. On the other hand, they avoid the evaluation of the consequences of their actions, and they are oblivious to the reality of a partnership between China and Russia. A continued delay to consider a partnership is bound to have a strong influence on the US foreign policy. An alliance between China and Russia will give rise to several unforeseen developments for both Brussels and Washington when it comes to the economic as well as the political-military relations.
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There is a close trade interaction between China and Russia, and it is equivalent to billions each year. It continually improves and it has been set to grow even more. In the year 2015, a China-Russia investment fund worth $100 billion was setup. The fund was introduced in 2012 by investment vehicles. The bilateral trade volume between the two countries, which was a total of $15.8 billion by 2003, had grown six times more in past 10 years, totaling $94.3 billion by 2014. By 2015, the bilateral commerce was estimated to be at $100 billion. By 2020, investment was projected to be at $20 billion. The trading value between Russia and China had matured by 17.8% in the past 11 years.
The oil economy of Russia also affects China. Putin explains that the reducing Chinese economy, as well as the excessive production of fuels, is the cause of the oil plunge. As the economy of the world reduces, it influences the cost of oil. Fuel is not purchased in the manner that the economists predicted. China is Russia’s biggest partner in trade. By the beginning of the 21st century, the economic cooperation between China and Russia had expanded drastically. In the year 2009, China was one of the best trade patners for Russia. The structure, as well as the commercial connection between the two countries, is denoted by the expansion of hydrocarbon sales. The corporation and the investment between the two nations do not have a major significance. Russia faces challenges such as the need to send diverse exports to China and enhance the innovation as well as the transportation ties.
China is crucial to Russia and vice versa. Russia’s exports to China make up 2% of the sales revenue. The imports that China receives from Russia make up 2.3% of the total purchases from both countries. Initially, China traded with the United States, Korea, Europe, and Hong Kong. A conclusion can be made that the interaction between China and Russia are equal in nature. Both China and Russia have deep regard for each other.
Army and Weapon Analysis
The Sino-Russian alliance was perceived as a counter to the West. When the Chinese leader Xi went to Russia, it was considered a sign of a collaboration between the two countries. It was a response to President Putin’s disconnection from Europe and it was done to seek closer ties between both nations. It was interpreted that China and Russia were representative of a counter the balance of the Western monolith.
There were reports that China had purchased 70% of Russian arms. According to Voskressnki, the economic tension because of globalization has reinforced the relationship between the two countries. Russia and China benefit from the international trade but they are concerned about the Western nations lagging behind. Both nations wish to control the negative consequences of globalization through the promotion of cross-border trade. China gains from Russian supplies and Russia benefits. Another element of the Russia-China economic relationship, which is a serious concern for the Unites States, is the sale of arms from Russia to China. For China, the sale of arms was representative of an essential source of exports income. In return, China depends on Russia for sophisticated weapons so that it can terminate purchases from the West.
The technology industry in China lags behind in comparison to other nations. China has a tendency to steal technology whenever it can. In some instances, it may go as far as hack the US companies. It may replicate military products purchased from Russia. Such actions from China have put a strain on the Sino-China relationship. For instance, in 2006, Russia terminated the arms sale to China over such concerns. Later, Russia resumed arms sales, but only because it faced economic difficulties.
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Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, visited China to attend the 70th anniversary of World War II, and this visit was escalated the developing relationship between Russia and China. There was an early warning from the Western policy experts on the Russia-China relationship, even before Putin had planned his trip to China. Analysts have looked into the possibility of a Sino-Russian alliance. According to Fyododr Lukyanov, the head of the Council of Defense and Foreign Policy, the concept of an association, as understood by many, may not apply to the relationship binding China and Russia. There is no specific goal for either the Russians or the Chinese to form any binding alliances, particularly those of military connotations. China and Russia are two separate countries that consider freedom as one of the most vital elements of foreign policy.
Some of the critics considered the relationship between China and Russia as an association of convenience or more of a charade. Some focus on the developing variance in power of the two nations and they are in doubt that Russia will be in a position to be subordinate to China. There are those that think that the two countries are bound to fall into a conflict, as China ventures further into central Asia. Some would say that the USA is paranoid and it lets its fears cloud the judgment. Alternatively, it could be possible that the USA is only out to protect its interests, even if it means being extra cautious. For the USA to protect its interest, it has to make use of a reactive strategy rather than an active approach. It would be safe to say that the USA should not worry about the interactions between the two nations.
Considering the existing trend of events, corporate America attempts to evaluate the risk projected onto its interests by the China-Russia relationship. Advisors suggested that with the current “cold war of business”, the USA ought to focus on the developing ties between China and Russia. Experts anticipate that the tension between Russia and China will only get worse with the passage of time. As Russia and China continue to support each other, universal economic values, as well as American businesses, will struggle to maintain a balance.
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Although Russia and China may be friendly countries, they may not be ready to limit their actions by the imposed lockdown agreements. Neither Russia nor China has an interest in forming an alliance (Horváth 260)
. Nonetheless, such an alliance would not be inclusive of close political, cultural, and economic relationship to some degree of cooperation. It is not unheard of for two countries to share common views on international relationships. From this triangle, an outstanding element is a policy employed by the USA. There are new discussions in Washington on the impending sanctions to be imposed on Russia and China, particularly for the cybercrimes committed by China or for what is considered as any hostile activity from the Chinese side. For Russia, clear sanctions can be observed more often.
The Sino-Russian alliance was perceived as a counter to the West. Now, the relationship between the three countries is strained, which is the opposite of what was intended by Henry Kissinger. An integral look into the China-Russian relationship reveals that China and Russia have carried out a series of deals, which made Russia the primary supplier of oil and gas to China. China is predicted to be the major investor in the Russian economy and presumed to boost its economy by the year 2020. A look into the industrial cooperation reveals that Russia and China currently cooperate in several fields such as the development of aircraft and sharing of satellite data. Financial analysis shows that Russia and China are in a corporation. They intend to replace the US dollar and they look into card payments with the SWIFT system. Concerning arms, Russia and China take part in military exercises to enhance the magnitude and the frequency of arms sales since Russia is in a current arms business with China. The diplomatic and political relations show that Russia and China are the pioneers of the Shanghai Cooperation. They control their positions with each other. They also offer backup for each other up in the UN Security Council.
The review of the above relationship between China and Russia indicates that there is clearly a beneficial relationship between the two nations. China lags behind in technological developments and it depends on Russia to supplement such needs despite the supply-demand relationship between the two countries. However, China has made use of unfair tactics to take advantage of Russia, thus violating the Sino-Russian relations. It would be safe to say that the USA should not worry about the interactions between the two nations.
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